The desire for denuclearization is in game theory the tragedy of the commons. And it means that though the superpowers know it is in their own best interest to denuclearize, that being to avoid a nuclear war and its consequences, however, rather than be rational, they choose to continue stockpiling nuclear weapons. In principle, they do this because they can never be certain that the other countries with nuclear weapons will keep their agreement, and reduce their stockpile, believing it is in their own best interests to maintain production of their nuclear arsenal. And to avoid being discovered by UN peacekeeping forces or on site inspectors directed by the UN security council, they stockpile their most advanced weapons systems underground in secret bunkers. Thus we realize, in truth, no nation is willing to totally cooperate with the other, but would rather defect and continue amassing nuclear weapons, since it is in their own best interest to do so, regardless of their UN membership status. And consequently, our fate for the future will be an unavoidable nuclear war.

Admiral Mike Mullen, on Face The Nation today, Sunday July 5, 2009, mentioned Israel launching a first strike, or preemptive strike against Iran. I take it he meant an aggressive nuclear attack on an Islamic country without there being a real current physical threat of some kind from that particular nation. To engage in nuclear war without probable cause, other than a defensive counterattack, means such unscrupulous behavior will surely have disastrous effects globally. One event is sure to occur thereafter, and that is, other Islamic countries that are democratic and partial to the US or the West and perhaps members of the UN, like Egypt, Afghanistan and Pakistan, Syria, Lebanon, maybe even Turkey and Saudi Arabia, could change sides, due to a religious affinity. Such a strategy, whether overt or covert, would come about from religious sect pressure, such as, the Sunnis, the Shi´ites, the Zoroastrians, Christians, or other religious sects within each regime.

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty since August 2008 halted any forward progress to enter the organizational phase in 2009. Thus this impasse reeks of uncertainty for all the countries involved, including the US, Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, and many others for the future. Which reinforces my suspicion about the assertion of the Tragedy of the Commons. Besides that, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty discriminates on the bases of economic wealth as well, and thus prevents other nations such as Pakistan, North Korea, India and Iran for example, from having a strong political voice in world affairs in the UN security Council, which consist mainly of five major countries. The US being one of them, and Russia another. Such disparity leaves the excluded nations no choice but to act totally in their own best interests. The adoption of UN security council resolution 1874, 12 June 2009, by the General Assembly, has only a marginal affect on North Korea’s push forward with nuclear testing. And this means you can only push people so far, and that goes for countries too, before they stop caring about the consequences of their actions.

The Seventh Man